These year-ahead unit cost expectations are lower than the peak of 3.8% seen in April 2022 but remain above the pre-pandemic average of 2% seen from January 2017 through December 2019, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said in the April edition of its Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey.

When asked if they thought they could pass these higher costs along to their customers, the answers varied by the size of the business, according to the survey.

“Small firms reported a lower ability to pass through unit cost increases, while medium and large firms reported a large distribution of ability to pass through unit cost increases,” the survey said. “Goods reported slightly greater pass through unit cost increases than services.”

There was variation by sector, but it was “clear” that medium and larger firms were more likely than small firms to report having the ability to pass through unit cost increases, per the survey.

S&P Global reported Wednesday that firms are charging higher prices for goods and services because of rising costs caused by tariffs, import prices and labor costs.

Prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate seen in 13 months in April, with tariffs driving an especially steep increase in prices of manufactured goods, S&P Global said.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released April 10 showed that consumer prices decreased by 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, but that data came before tariffs roiled global trade and inflation reignited, PYMNTS reported at the time.

The Atlanta Fed’s BIE Survey released Wednesday also asked businesses if they were concerned about a recession in the next 12 months. About 25% said in April that this is a “significant concern.” That figure is up from about 11% from September, when the Atlanta Fed last asked this question.

The survey also found that about 9% of businesses said they believe the United States is already in a recession, a figure that is up from 0 in September. In April, about 73% of firms worried about a potential recession cited U.S. trade policy as a reason for their concern.

“Everything has taken a back seat to trade policy,” the survey said.

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Although some business owners are girding for a recession, any such scenario may be relatively shallow, as the Federal Reserve can cut rates from still-high levels.

Priority CEO Tom Priore told Karen Webster that no matter the economic environment, small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) that power the GDP navigate seas of complexity. Construction firms have multiple projects going at any one time, yet 60% of these companies have fewer than five employees. Restaurants must juggle several suppliers and distributors to keep inventory on hand and customers fed. Managing payroll and keeping these vendors loyal underscore the fact that cash flow is king, especially if inflation remains lofty.

“From the SMB standpoint, the exposure to tariffs at the supply chain level may actually be pretty small … but the main concern and the damage to small business lies with consumer uncertainty,” Priore said.

PYMNTS Intelligence found that nearly 80% of consumers are pulling back on at least some purchases due to this uncertainty, as they seek to pad savings or wait to see what comes next.

“Where the rubber’s going to meet the road is what the consumer decisions are,” he said, adding that “if consumer spending does slow, it’s going to affect all businesses.”

Against that backdrop, small business owners are looking to be predictive and proactive about how to manage their businesses, he said, and the top-of-mind questions crystallize into, “How am I managing cash flow? How can I optimize working capital?” Many small businesses rely on the personal credit cards of their owners (which may already be stretched as they’ve had to use those cards to manage their own essential expenses).

“What we’re seeing, not just on the small business front but also with larger companies, is the utilization of credit products to extend working capital,” Priore said.

These solutions can also include bill payment offerings that allow expenses to be satisfied with card payments to help regulate cash flow.

Bundled Financial Services

“We’re also seeing a real pickup in bundled financial services with an uptick in [Priority] customers that want to have banking that’s more connected to their merchant services, where funds can settle faster and they have better visibility into cash flow,” he said.

Better visibility into cash flow and opening secured lines of credit (secured by forward sales) means that they can strike better deals with their suppliers, which improves efficiencies along the supply chain.

“These non-traditional lines of credit will be more broadly used by small businesses to optimize spending on their suppliers and buy items they might need in bulk or purchase large-ticket items,” Priore said.

Bundled financial offerings give SMBs the tools they need to manage their business in a personalized way, “a choose your own adventure” approach to managing cash, he said.

“You can use our products for accounts receivable, which is merchant acquiring, or card or ACH, and it’s all in one place,” he said. “Even if you need to do a lockbox, you can do that, getting all your money into a bank ‘container’ that’s FDIC insured. Or [a firm] could use an embedded card that’s attached to a bank account to pay bills… All of this is embedded into the experience, and it’s a unified commerce experience.”

Looking ahead, he said, key signs to watch for the health of small businesses include whether they are retaining employees or letting them go, and monitoring the levels of card delinquencies, which indicate a stretched consumer who might cut back drastically.

The mindset of what Priore termed “American optimism” will prevail, and that optimism is embedded in the business landscape.

“The uncertainty today will be reconciled and cleaned up,” he told Webster, adding that “our mission is to provide that flexible financial tool set … it doesn’t matter what environment you’re in. Accelerating cash flow and optimizing working capital are always good things.”

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In the PYMNTS Intelligence report “Brewing Storm: Why 1 in 5 Smaller Businesses Without Financing Fear They May Not Survive Tariffs, the 560 small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs) surveyed gave a glimpse into the state of affairs: Amid macro turbulence not seen in years, and tariffs that have not been at this (threatened) level in more than a century, the data shows that just 36% had access to readily available cash, including another 8% that also had cash in the bank.

Cash Navigates Storm

Cash, and the access to it, makes a difference. Our data shows that smaller firms with access to financing and cash are 23% more likely to be very confident in their ability to navigate tariffs compared to those who do not have access to financing or cash. There’s a vicious cycle in the works, too. The lack of access to funds begets a further lack of ability to get those funds. PYMNTS Intelligence found that SMBs that do not have access to financing are 75% more likely to have no plan to help offset any additional costs from tariffs.

The fact remains, too, that without access to outside capital or savings in hand, firms must rely on the vagaries of their current operating environment — which can be volatile, to say the least. Money that comes in the door or through online channels is the only means of survival, and if revenues are uncertain, then so too is the financial status of the SMBs.

Seven percent  of firms surveyed said they might have to shutter operations in a short time frame, perhaps within the next two years.  The figure nearly doubles for those companies that have no access to financing, at 13%. Overall, 50% of companies rely solely on their daily sales or owners’ personal savings to survive.

This last measure is no bulwark against uncertainty, as individuals and households that are also contending with inflation and their own financial insecurity may have to tap savings just to get by. And as PYMNTS has reported, about two-thirds of consumers live paycheck to paycheck, which gives a nod to just how thin the margin of safety for SMBs can be.

We found that 64% of hotel, restaurant and entertainment companies’ sole financing option was cash they had in the bank.

Overall, 44% of SMBs had access to any form of financing, which indicates a sizable market for forward-thinking financial services providers — particularly when it comes to cards. In terms of the products already in use, fewer than 3 in 10, or 28%, of all SMBs have business credit cards. But those cardholders are satisfied with that form of financing. Sixty-four percent of businesses with access to any form of financing use their corporate cards to withdraw money for business operations.

“The cards offer SMBs many advantages, allowing them to access cash on a moment’s notice for generally low fees, as long as repayments are made on time,” PYMNTS wrote.

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The appeal? SMBs need the same sophistication in cash management, credit and payroll as larger enterprises, but lack the internal finance teams or legacy tech to support it.

It’s a strategic pivot that is quickly reshaping the future of FinTech. Take, for example, the Monday (April 7) announcement that Pennylane raised around $82 million to grow its accounting platform for SMBs.

From embedded finance to real-time cash flow tools, B2B FinTech companies are rolling out solutions tailored specifically to SMBs’ unique challenges. In doing so, they are not just unlocking a massive and underpenetrated market, but they are also catalyzing a new wave of innovation in financial infrastructure.

SMBs are the beating heart of the economy, but they’ve traditionally been treated like an afterthought when it comes to financial services and other innovative product offerings. But recent advances in open banking, AI-driven underwriting and application programming interface (API)-first architectures have made it both feasible and profitable for FinTechs to target SMBs at scale.

Read also: What Pinball Tells Us About Spending in the Post-Tariff World

Innovation is Making Operational Complexity Disappear for SMBs 

Financial institutions have traditionally struggled to serve SMBs for several reasons. Unlike consumers, SMBs have highly varied business models, cash flow patterns and credit profiles. Unlike large enterprises, they lack dedicated finance teams or the volume to justify custom solutions. This “messy middle” left them in a no-man’s land — too complex for retail, too small for corporate.

As the macro backdrop shifts, this no-man’s land could become deadly for SMBs. The most recent core finding from the latest PYMNTS Intelligence report reveals a stark reality: one in five SMBs without access to financing fear they may not survive ongoing tariff-related cost increases. These businesses, often viewed as the backbone of the U.S. economy, are being squeezed between the rising cost of goods and limited financial buffers, highlighting systemic weaknesses in capital accessibility across the sector.

According to the data, only 44% of SMBs currently have access to any form of external financing — be it bank loans, lines of credit or alternative lending. The remaining 56% rely primarily on operational cash flow or personal capital to fund day-to-day operations. This divide is particularly troubling when considered alongside macroeconomic trends.

Separate March data from the PYMNTS Intelligence SMB Growth Report reveals that nearly one in three rural SMBs (30%) that report declining revenue.

Enter artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, which are helping to address one of the thorniest challenges in SMB finance: risk assessment. Traditional credit models often fail to capture the nuance of SMB cash flows, seasonality or industry-specific patterns. AI models, trained on large and diverse datasets, can identify signals that human analysts might miss — such as social proof from customer reviews, real-time inventory turnover or invoice payment behavior.

These solutions are helping SMBs find the working capital solutions they need. For example, PayPal reported last month that it had passed $30 billion in global loan originations for small businesses since launching its first merchant lending solution in 2013. Over that time, the company has extended more than 1.4 million loans to more than 420,000 business accounts globally.

Thirty-seven percent of SMBs are highly interested in switching to providers that offer embedded lending options, according to the PYMNTS Intelligence report commissioned by Visa, “Embedded Lending: From the Lender’s Perspective.”

See also: Why 1 in 5 Smaller Businesses Without Financing Fear They May Not Survive Tariffs

Cash Flow, Payroll and Beyond

Today’s SMBs expect financial products to be as seamless as the apps they use in their personal lives. The marketplace is responding with API-first platforms that help make this possible by enabling FinTechs to build modular, embeddable solutions that can integrate directly into the platforms SMBs already use — like eCommerce storefronts, accounting software or point-of-sale systems.

At the end of last month, HoneyBook, a business platform for service-based entrepreneurs, introduced AI-powered business management tools; while Chaser launched an integration with Odoo, saying it provides automated AR (accounts receivable) tools like automated follow-ups and credit control tools that help businesses automate repetitive tasks and gain actionable insights.

Elsewhere, Priority Technology Holdings launched a new tool to help small businesses with their individual coverage health reimbursement arrangement (ICHRA) plan payments and administration workflows. ICHRAs are employer-funded health benefits that let employers reimburse their workers tax-free for individual health insurance premiums and qualified medical expenses.

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As The New York Times (NYT) reported Sunday (April 6), these changes include stalled funding, job cuts at federal agencies, a crackdown on immigration and now, tariffs. Put together, it has left business owners unclear on how to move forward.

“It’s feeling like a tornado to small business owners,” said Natalie Madeira Cofield, CEO of the Association for Enterprise Opportunity, which backs efforts to help companies with under 10 employees. “This is an unprecedented moment.”

The report pointed out the pressures this sector has been dealing with in recent years, including the COVID pandemic, a jump in inflation, and rising interest rates.

Smaller businesses now have fewer employees on average than they did prior to the pandemic, NYT said, citing data from payroll platform Homebase, with hiring down 1.6% during the first quarter compared to the same period in 2024.

Meanwhile, data from Quickbooks shows that the number of businesses with fewer than 10 employees began to rapidly contract beginning last March.

The report also cited research from Ufuk Akcigit, a University of Chicago economist, showing that small businesses began to run up credit card bills in 2021, taking on steep interest payments. When interest rates climbed in 2022, revenues fell and more small businesses slipped into delinquency.

“Small businesses don’t have internal capital to rely on,” Akcigit said. “As a result, if there’s any financial difficulty, they’re the first group to be left out of the credit market.”

Meanwhile, forthcoming research from PYMNTS Intelligence shows the financing pressures facing small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs).

“The findings reveal that about half of SMBs rely on immediate sales or existing cash for survival, with business credit cards — which are not a working capital solution — being the most common form of financing for those with access,” PYMNTS wrote recently. 

“SMBs with access to some method of financing demonstrate greater confidence in navigating economic challenges.”

The challenges extend to middle-market companies where — per additional PYMNTS Intelligence research — 60% of CFOs expect the tariffs to bring about additional economic uncertainty and planning challenges.

The research also found that almost 70% of finance chiefs foresee supply shortages and product delays, with a similar share executing new costs to restructure their supply chains.

“While uncertainty reigns, one thing may remain clear: The firms that survive could be the ones willing to evolve. CFOs today need to be part economist, part strategist, and part fortune teller, able to anticipate policy shifts while managing immediate operational challenges,” PYMNTS wrote last month.

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The payments and banking solutions provider launched its Ambient business for individual coverage health reimbursement arrangement (ICHRA) plan payments and administration, according to a Thursday (March 27) press release.

ICHRAs are employer-funded health benefits that let employers reimburse their workers tax-free for individual health insurance premiums and qualified medical expenses, the release said.

“ICHRAs are experiencing rapid growth in the U.S., driven by their flexibility, potential cost savings, and ability to expand health coverage options,” Ambient Chief Operating Officer Jim Mrowka said in the release. “Of particular note, ICHRAs allow many [small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs)] to offer health benefits to their employees for the first time: 83% of new ICHRA adopters previously offered no health insurance.”

Ambient lets insurance brokers and third-party administrators (TPAs) build “high margin ICHRA businesses” while allowing SMBs to establish ICHRA plans, according to the release.

These employers can also use Ambient to generate customized plan documents, manage election and substantiation, and streamline payment administration using “an employee-low-touch payments loop,” the release said.

“We’re very pleased to have Ambient in our SMB product lineup,” Priority CEO Tom Priore said in the release. “…ICHRAs are primarily a health benefit, but their structure and flexibility create positive ripple effects for the whole business, from financial management to employee satisfaction.”

The launch of Ambient came as SMBs face increased financial pressures.

Forthcoming research from PYMNTS Intelligence — set to be published in mid-April — shows a lack of financial resilience among these smaller businesses, with less than half saying they have access to financing and working capital solutions.

“This lack of financial flexibility directly correlates with their fears about navigating economic headwinds,” PYMNTS wrote last week.

SMBs without access to financing are less confident about adapting to a changing economy. They are 75% more likely to have no plan to offset any costs arising from the implementation of tariffs.

“This stark reality contributes to a heightened sense of uncertainty, as SMBs lacking financing express less confidence than those that do in their survival over the next two years,” PYMNTS wrote.

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“While AI solutions have largely been built for enterprises or consumers, independent entrepreneurs have been left with fragmented tools that require constant coordination,” the company said in a Tuesday (March 25) news release. “HoneyBook is changing that by embedding AI directly into business workflows, making automation seamless, proactive and deeply integrated into the way entrepreneurs work.”

HoneyBook’s AI offering can suggest leads and help create content to manage those leads. It can also manage projects and tackle finances after booking. Using “deep contextual intelligence” from 10 years of independent business data, HoneyBook AI allows for “smarter, more personalized decisions” with no need for users to train the AI, the release said.

“As a third-generation entrepreneur, I’ve seen firsthand how technology can level the playing field for small businesses,” HoneyBook CEO and co-founder Oz Alon said in the release. “That’s why we’re going all in on AI—not just to keep up with industry trends, but to truly rethink how independent businesses operate. Entrepreneurs need AI that understands how they work, anticipates their needs and helps them grow.”

The launch comes amid a period of increasing strain for small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs), especially in rural parts of the country.

“Those in rural areas are twice as likely as those in big cities to report decreasing revenues, at 30% compared to 15%,” the PYMNTS Intelligence report “The Urban-Rural Economic Divide: How Location Affects SMBs’ Outlook” found.

The disparity is partly caused by the continued recovery of urban industries like hospitality, retail and professional services. The research showed that 56% of urban hospitality SMBs reported revenue growth, one of the highest figures across industries.

Meanwhile, soon-to-be-published research by PYMNTS Intelligence revealed that about half of SMBs count on immediate sales or existing cash for survival, with business credit cards serving as the most common form of financing for those merchants who have access.

Those without access to financing are less confident in their ability to adapt to a changing economic environment and are 75% more likely to have no plan to offset any costs arising from the implementation of tariffs.

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Yet these businesses have endured, even thrived, and the latest March 2025 data from the PYMNTS Intelligence SMB Growth Report reveals that urban businesses are experiencing steady growth, with only 15% reporting declining revenue.

That’s compared to nearly one in three rural SMBs (30%) that report declining revenue. This disparity is fueled in part by the continued recovery of urban industries such as hospitality, retail and professional services.

For urban business owners, the post-pandemic recovery has been a tale of two realities. On the one hand, high foot traffic, economic reopenings and increased consumer spending have buoyed many businesses. On the other, rising costs and changing work habits present formidable hurdles.

Among the biggest beneficiaries of urban economic momentum are the hospitality and food service industries. Restaurants, cafés and hotels have seen an upswing as business travel rebounds and downtown districts regain vibrancy. According to the PYMNTS report, 56% of hospitality SMBs reported revenue growth, one of the highest figures across sectors.

However, this industry remains among the most volatile, with a significant share of businesses still struggling to recover from previous downturns.

Read more: Study Finds Cash Flow Crisis Deepening for Small Businesses Amid Tariffs and Consumer Pullback

The Hybrid Work Conundrum

One of the most pressing structural challenges for urban SMBs is the shift in workplace dynamics. Hybrid work arrangements have reshaped consumer behavior, particularly in central business districts where office workers were once a reliable customer base.

Foot traffic in major metropolitan areas remains below pre-pandemic levels, impacting businesses that depend on weekday office workers. Cafés, dry cleaners and lunch spots that once thrived on 9-to-5 routines must now contend with unpredictable demand patterns. The decline in daily commuters has forced many SMBs to rethink their business models, adjusting hours, diversifying offerings and investing in digital engagement.

Despite these shifts, many urban SMBs are adapting. Some are pivoting toward delivery-based models, subscription services or catering to residential neighborhoods where hybrid workers are spending more time. Others have capitalized on the growing trend of flexible workspaces, offering services tailored to remote professionals seeking a change of scenery.

In spite of these headwinds, urban SMBs remain relatively optimistic about their future. Confidence in long-term survival has strengthened, with the percentage of businesses expressing concerns about their two-year viability dropping from 5% in November to 4% in January.

Expansion-minded businesses are increasingly turning to digital commerce and omnichannel strategies. eCommerce integration has become a key growth driver, allowing urban SMBs to reach broader audiences beyond their immediate geographical footprint. Many are also investing in technology-driven payment solutions to streamline transactions and improve customer experience.

See also: 32% of SMBs Favor Community Banks Over National Banks

The Road Ahead

The urban SMB sector is, in many ways, a microcosm of broader economic trends. It encapsulates the challenges and opportunities of a post-pandemic world, one where agility, innovation and strategic foresight will determine which businesses thrive.

The urban-rural divide in SMB optimism and performance also has significant implications for payments innovation. Factors like increasing competition are particularly pronounced in small cities, where 43% of SMBs identified it as a primary concern.

Beyond competitive landscape trends, urban SMBs are feeling the financial squeeze from inflation and high operational costs. Rising wages, rent increases and supply chain disruptions have exerted sustained pressure on profit margins. Unlike their rural counterparts, city-based businesses must contend with steeper commercial real estate prices, making cost management a central concern.

Industries experiencing high volatility, like hospitality, may benefit from payment innovations that offer greater flexibility, such as dynamic pricing models and real-time payment processing, to better manage cash flow and respond to market changes.​

Many urban SMBs have implemented strategic pricing adjustments, renegotiated leases and sought alternative suppliers. Some have embraced automation and digital tools to enhance efficiency, streamlining operations in an effort to offset rising expenses. Others have leveraged government grants and local economic development programs to stabilize cash flow and secure growth capital.

For further reading, check out the full March 2025 SMB Growth Report, “The Urban-Rural Economic Divide: How Location Affects SMBs’ Outlook.”

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That’s according to a report Saturday (March 22) by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), which said more than 40% of small business owners said economic conditions had deteriorated compared to last year, up from 22% in February.

Among the small businesses profiled in the report is Los Angeles’ Quake City Casuals, a headwear company that absorbed about half the cost of President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports last month, and stockpiled $500,000 of inventory before they went into effect.    

All the same, Quake City’s sales are down 40% this year. John Glucksman, the company’s president, told WSJ he has reduced his employees’ hours. Job cuts could follow if business doesn’t pick up by the end of the month.

“There is only a limited amount of things we can do to reduce our costs,” he said.

As WSJ noted, smaller businesses have fewer options available to them than their larger counterparts when it comes to dealing with a trade war. That’s left many of these companies cutting costs and holding off on expanding. And like Quake City, some are weighing layoffs.

The WSJ’s findings are in keeping with recent PYMNTS Intelligence research showing that all but a small minority of small businesses see the tariffs as a negative, with more than two-thirds expecting the levies to drive up raw material costs or lead to product shortages.

Meanwhile, forthcoming research by PYMNTS Intelligence shows that about half of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) depend on immediate sales or existing cash for survival, with business credit cards serving as the most common form of financing for those with access.

“Those without access to financing are significantly less confident in their ability to adapt to a changing economic environment and are 75% more likely to have no plan to offset any costs arising from the implementation of tariffs,” PYMNTS wrote last week. 

“This stark reality contributes to a heightened sense of uncertainty, as SMBs lacking financing express less confidence than those that do in their survival over the next two years.”

Underlining their tenuous position, SMBs already facing financial strains are more likely to use financing out of necessity than for strategy growth. Of the companies that have used financing in the past year, businesses that are “slightly or not at all likely” to survive display a higher tendency to use it primarily out of necessity (43.2%) versus more stable SMBs. 

“This suggests a significant portion of the SMB ecosystem is operating in survival mode and is ill-equipped to weather potential tariff storms and economic downturns,” PYMNTS wrote.

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The company aims to expand beyond the three countries in which it operates: the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Netherlands, Flowpay said in a Wednesday (March 19) press release emailed to PYMNTS.

“This new line of credit from Fasanara Capital allows us to become one of the leading embedded lending solutions in Europe,” Flowpay CEO and Founder William Jalloul said in the release.

The company offers SMBs access to business loans of between €2,000 and €100,000, according to its website.

To apply for a business loan, SMBs connect their partner point of sale (POS) or eCommerce platform with the Flowpay app, select a loan amount and repayment schedule, review the total payment information that is instantly provided, and verify their identity and bank account online, the site said.

After the system evaluates the application, Flowpay will email the SMB a contract and, once that’s been signed, deposit the funds into the SMB’s account, per the site.

Embedded lending is growing in popularity around the world, according to the PYMNTS Intelligence report commissioned by Visa, “The Embedded Lending Opportunity: Global State of Play.”

The report found that across six major world markets, 18% of microbusinesses and small businesses (MSBs) have recently used embedded lending.

The growing popularity of this type of lending is driven by the convenient, streamlined access to financing it offers from within merchant, business and other platforms, per the report.

The ability to better manage cash flow is a clear benefit of embedded lending, as it enables small businesses to manage their cash needs in unpredictable situations, Mathieu Altwegg, head of product and solutions for U.K. and Ireland at Visa, told PYMNTS in an interview posted in October.

Being offered as an embedded option in context and in real time is a marked departure from traditional lending, which tends to be planned in advance and which can be tied to a relatively long approval and underwriting process, Altwegg said.

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